U.S. economic expansion may be nowhere near ending

Published on Friday, 3 May 2019 18:06
Written by Nir Kaissar

Bloomberg Opinion

The current U.S. economic expansion that began in 2009 will celebrate its 10th anniversary in June. The following month, it will become the longest period of sustained U.S. growth on record, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, surpassing the 10-year expansion from March 1991 to March 2001.

The length of the current growth spate is raising questions among some market-watchers about just how much further it can go on, and whether the U.S. is due for a recession. My Bloomberg News colleague Steve Matthews asked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that very question during the central bank’s briefing on Wednesday. Powell seemed unconcerned, saying he saw the U.S. “on a good path for this year,” citing healthy growth, a strong labor market and low inflation.

The topic also came up when former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and former U.S. Treasury Secretaries Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner appeared on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” on Sunday. They were there to promote their new book, “Firefighting: The Financial Crisis and Its Lessons,” a meditation on the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the response to it, but there was little chance of dodging the R-word. Zakaria asked Geithner about it; he said the foundations of the current period “are more stable than is true for many past expansions,” adding that it “could go on.”

There’s good reason to share Powell’s and Geithner’s calm. When observing the current expansion solely in terms of duration, it does seem as if it’s running long. But when comparing current growth to that of previous expansions, an imminent recession no longer seems inevitable.

Two things immediately jump out. The first is that the length of expansions, with few exceptions, has increased dramatically over the past seven decades. The second is that real annualized GDP growth has gradually declined over the same time. With each successive expansion, in other words, it’s taking the economy longer to produce the same amount of total growth.

That makes sense. Large economies grow more slowly, and more steadily, than smaller ones. That’s evident when comparing the growth of developed economies such as Germany’s or Japan’s - or even the U.S. - with developing ones such as India’s. It’s easy to forget that U.S. GDP was roughly $300 billion in 1950, which is less than the GDP of 22 states in 2017 and just 1.5% of American output in 2018.

So while the current expansion will soon be the longest on record, it ranks fifth in total growth among the 11 expansions since 1950. At its current annualized growth rate, it would take another six years to match the total growth attained during the 10-year expansion from March 1991 to March 2001 and another nine years to match that of the period from February 1961 to December 1969. By those lights, the duration of the current expansion seems less worrisome.

That doesn’t mean slow and steady growth is satisfying - least of all for investors. It’s unlikely to support further outsize gains from U.S. stocks favored by bulls, or heart-stopping declines prized by bears. But after the twin dot-com and housing bubbles of the past two decades, and their ruinous aftermaths, slow and steady is nice for a change. Now if only we had the good sense to enjoy it.

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Kaissar is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the markets. He is the founder of Unison Advisors, an asset management firm. He has worked as a lawyer at Sullivan & Cromwell and a consultant at Ernst & Young.



Posted in New Britain Herald, Columns on Friday, 3 May 2019 18:06. Updated: Friday, 3 May 2019 18:08.